Forex Finviz - Forex Millennium System Free Download

Trading Systems

All about trading systems. Stocks, options, futures, forex, ETF's, and more.
[link]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019

Good afternoon and happy Saturday to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019.

What to watch in the market in the week ahead: Stocks on track for best first half in 22 years - (Source)

The fate of U.S.-China trade talks could play out in the week ahead, and that could set the tone for markets and the economy in the second half of the year.
Stocks set new highs in the past week, after the Federal Reserve signaled it was ready to cut interest rates if necessary, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said trade and the global economy are two factors the Fed is watching.
The S&P 500 was on track, as of Friday, to score a more than 17.6% gain for the first half, which ends Friday. If it stays at that level that would be the best first half performance since 1997, when the S&P was up 19.4% in the first six months.
The big event in the coming week has been as anticipated for weeks, and it could sway sentiment for weeks to come. At the end of the week, the G-20 meets in Osaka Japan for meetings Friday and Saturday.
‘Could go either way’ President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to have their own dinner meeting at the G-20 next weekend, following discussions between their trade representatives. That meeting could decide how trade negotiations go forward, and whether the U.S. proceeds with another round of tariffs, this time on $300 billion in goods.
“Everybody knows the Trump, Xi meeting could go either way,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “I think everyone expects a new tariff freeze. That the $300 billion won’t go into effect. The most you can hope for out of G-20 meeting is the tariffs are where they are right now, and there’s no more escalation.That also means China will not release the list of companies they won’t do business with.”
Chandler said he will be looking for signaling from Trump and Xi on whether they are working on a deal that would be just on the trade topics, or bigger issues like North Korea and differences on the South China Sea.
“I do think the G-20 is quite important in that there’s not question in recent months, the trade war started to really move into measures of confidence and measures of manufacturing activity,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Harris said he expects a positive message with an agreement of no further escalation, but probably not signs of significant progress. “I think the vibes coming out of it will be modestly positive,” he said.
“Whether there’s an escalation to the next round of China tariffs is going to set the theme for the rest of the year. Even if tariffs on China are reversed, or partly reversed, at some point, every time there’s an escalation or temporary escalation, it’s another kind of blow to confidence,” he said.
Harris said there’s the same risk as after the Trump, Xi meeting at the last G-20, where it was a positive tone but there was little progress afterwards and the markets then reacted negatively.
“I think there’s been this broad increased awareness from every economist that the trade war is starting to have noticeable impact. Further escalation with China would be quite a big signal. If the Trump administration puts tariffs on all the Chinese products it roughly doubles the size of the trade war and it sends a very strong message that there are very few constraints on where [Trump] goes next,” he said.
Powell and data Besides the meeting between Trump and Xi, the market focus will be on anything that could provide clues on what the Fed or even the European Central Bank will do, after ECB President Mario Draghi last week basically promised a new era of easing. Consumer price inflation data is expected for the euro zone, and on Friday, the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data is released, including the PCE deflator, a major inflation indicator for the Fed.
There are also a few Fed speakers, including Powell who speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations Tuesday.
“It’s probably going to be a big picture kind of talk about the broader challenges of the Fed,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re certainly going to ask questions about political influence at the Fed, and he’s going to dodge those. I think what I’m waiting for him to comment on is what it is they’re looking for to determine whether they’re going to cut in July or not.”
Harris said Powell is not likely to say anything he did not reveal at his press briefing in the past week, and the big focus will be on the lead up to the weekend G-20.
Falling interest rates and rising oil prices were two big factors in the market int he past week. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped briefly below 2%, a near 3-year low, as the Fed signaled its willingness to cut interest rates.
“Should we get some sort of trade agreement that would be a nice pop to the [stock] market, but that could take the rate cut off the table,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Stovall said the stock market will also be watching oil after its rapid run higher, and the events in the Middle East surrounding Iran. West Texas Intermediate futures were up more than 9% in the past week, to $57.43.
“The old adage is every $10 increase in the price of oil takes off 20 to 25 basis points off of real GDP growth,” he said.
Stovall said stocks have had a solid run so far this year, but they may face some rocky times between now and the end of the summer. “For the rest of this ‘sell in May’ period we could be facing some challenges, headwinds. I think we’ will still end higher on the year. I think the seasonally optimistic September to November period will kick in but there will be a lot of challenges...will the Fed be cutting rates? what are the growth prospects?” he said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Big S&P 500 Junes Drain Life from Julys

S&P 500 is off to it best June performance since 1955, up 7.34% as of yesterday’s close. If yesterday was the last trading day of June, this performance would have been strong enough to push the month to 6th best going back to 1930. Looking back to late May, this performance is still impressive even though it was anticipated following May’s abysmal showing. However, such strong performance in June may not carry over into July.
Below S&P 500 performance in June has been split into positive and negative tables. Each table contains July’s historical performance as well as full-year performance. Historically July has been weaker after a positive June. July averages just 0.48% after an up June compared to a gain of 2.84% after a down June. Examining the Top 20 Junes and subsequent Julys showed only a modest improvement in performance with average July gain climbing to 1.11%. However, even if July does disappoint this year, the full year is likely to still be quite fair as past positive Junes where followed by full-year gains 80% of the time with an average gain of 13.44%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Can Stocks Really Gain 20% This Year?

U.S. stocks could have a big year if LPL Research’s forecasts prove correct.
All year, we’ve maintained our fair value target on the S&P 500 Index of 3,000, implying that we expect this bull market and economic expansion to continue. If the S&P 500 closes the year at 3,000, the index will have gained 19.7% in 2019.
On the surface, that seems like a high hurdle for U.S. stocks. However, the S&P 500 has already gained about 16% this year, so a rally to 3,000 isn’t far out of reach.
The S&P 500 also hasn’t posted a 20% gain for the year since 2013, an unusually long stretch compared to history.
“It is interesting that the S&P 500 hasn’t gained more than 20% in any one year for five consecutive years,” noted LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Only once since 1950 did it go more than five years in a row without gaining 20%, thus if this pattern continues we very well might get to 20% in 2019.”
As our LPL Chart of the Day “Can The S&P 500 Index Really Gain 20% This Year?” shows, it is quite rare for the S&P 500 to go this long without a 20% annual gain. Could the streak end in 2019? Be sure to read our Midyear Outlook 2019, which is set for release next week, for more on why this could be the case.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Prospect of Lower Rates Lifts Gold

As widely anticipated, the Fed did not change its target rate today. Instead, the Fed set the stage for cuts possibly later this year. Overall, the market’s response was a choppy climb to a modestly higher close. A more enthusiastic move by the market may have occurred if the Fed cut rates. Gold’s reaction was more favorable, finishing the day higher by over 1%. Generally, the lower interest rates go, the more desirable gold can become as lower rates typically result in a weaker dollar.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the above chart, gold’s monthly performance from 1975 to 2018 is displayed. Historically, October has been gold’s worst month and June is a close second. Historically, after weakness in June, gold has, on average, enjoyed solid gains in July, August and September. Some of this strength in gold is likely due to safe-haven demand during the stock market’s worst two months, August and September. Gold’s best three months, July to September, could easily be above average this year, especially if the Fed decides to cut sooner rather than later.

Are Bulls An Endangered Species?

The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high yesterday, the 5th new high so far in 2019. After May, the worst month for the S&P 500 since 2010, June is up 7.3% as of 06.20.19, which would be the best June since 1955.
Much of the rally this month has been sparked by a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with U.S.-China trade discussions potentially back on track.
What’s quite interesting about things now though, is many signs of investor sentiment are a long way from bullish. Remember, from a contrarian (or opposing) point of view, this can suggest there is still money on the sidelines.
“The S&P 500 might be at new highs, but global fund managers and individual investors are quite underweight equities right now,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “If you are looking for a reason this rally can continue, that could be it.”
For example, the recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch June Global Fund Manager Survey (a survey of managers who oversee more than $600 billion in assets) showed the largest jump in cash since August 2011. Additionally, equity allocation was the lowest it had been since March 2009, and the equity-to-bond allocation was the lowest since May 2009. Not to mention the allocation to bonds was the highest it had been in eight years. “Money on the sidelines might sound cliché, but it really seems to be the case this time,” said Detrick. With the S&P 500 hitting more all-time highs, having money in the market may make more sense (or cents!).
Individual investors are skeptical as well, as the recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed more bears than bulls for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since November 2016. Finally, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, AAII bulls have been under 30% for six consecutive weeks for the first time since January 2016.

Broad Strength in Health Care Sector

In an earlier post, we highlighted the fact that some of the ten best performing S&P 500 Industries between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20 were from the Health Care sector. It hasn't just been these four industries that have been strong in the Health Care sector either. The performance snapshot of the sector below shows just how strong the sector has been lately. While all six of the industries within the sector aren't up YTD or so far in Q2, between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20, Health Care is the only sector where every industry within the sector has posted positive returns. Not even the industries within the Utilities sector have been this uniformly positive. The best performer of the bunch has been Health Care Technology, which is up 8% since the end of April and has extended its YTD gain to 36.8%. The worst performing industry in the sector has been Biotech which is up 2.1% since 4/30, and while that may not sound like much, it's still better than more than half of the other industries in the index.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Best and Worst Groups Between Highs

While the S&P 500 made a new high for the first time in 35 trading days yesterday, many of the characteristics of the groups driving the rally have shifted. To highlight this, in the table below we summarize the ten best and worst performing S&P 500 Industries from the close on 4/30 through yesterday. During that 35 trading day stretch, 34 Industries saw positive returns while another 27 declined.
Industries that have seen the biggest gains between the two new highs are primarily defensive in nature as all but three come from sectors that are typically considered defensive (Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). Health Care has been the real star of the show, though. Of the sector's six different industries, four of them made the top ten!
On the downside, cyclical industries have dominated the weak side. When industries like Semis, Autos, Construction & Engineering, and Air Freight are lagging the market, it really illustrates the presence of economic concerns. Leading the way lower, Energy Equipment and Services declined over 10%, followed by Semiconductors which were down just under 10% after failing at resistance on Thursday for the third time in a month. These two industries are followed by two industries (Tobacco and Power and Renewable Energy) that come from sectors that are traditionally considered defensive, but they have their own specific issues to deal with.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for June 21st, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 06.23.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $MU
  • $BB
  • $FDX
  • $NKE
  • $GIS
  • $WBA
  • $STZ
  • $LEN
  • $FDS
  • $PAYX
  • $SOL
  • $CAG
  • $ACN
  • $RAD
  • $INFO
  • $SNX
  • $KBH
  • $AVAV
  • $JKS
  • $UNF
  • $SCHN
  • $MKC
  • $ATU
  • $PIR
  • $MLHR
  • $SJR
  • $AITB
  • $SKIS
  • $SGH
  • $GMS
  • $APOG
  • $FUL
  • $NG
  • $PDCO
  • $WOR
  • $ACST
  • $FC
  • $CAMP
  • $PRGS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.24.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.24.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.25.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.25.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.26.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.26.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.27.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.27.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.28.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.28.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Micron Technology, Inc. $33.25

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $4.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.75 to $0.95 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 75.96% with revenue decreasing by 39.46%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.5% below its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,540 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BlackBerry Limited $8.48

BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $249.12 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 100.00% with revenue increasing by 16.96%. The stock has drifted lower by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% below its 200 day moving average of $8.85. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,499 contracts of the $9.00 call expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FedEx Corp. $165.35

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.81 per share on revenue of $17.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.61% with revenue increasing by 3.73%. Short interest has increased by 60.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $192.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,273 contracts of the $175.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $85.75

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $10.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.71 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.35% with revenue increasing by 3.79%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $80.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,156 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $53.77

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.80% with revenue increasing by 8.73%. Short interest has increased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc $52.45

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.43 per share on revenue of $34.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.54% with revenue increasing by 0.57%. Short interest has decreased by 8.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% below its 200 day moving average of $67.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Constellation Brands, Inc. $183.73

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, June 28, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.09 per share on revenue of $2.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.62%. Short interest has increased by 66.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $189.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,200 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lennar Corp. $51.35

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.13 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.48% with revenue decreasing by 6.39%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% above its 200 day moving average of $46.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,349 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. $298.08

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.37 per share on revenue of $358.95 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.72% with revenue increasing by 5.60%. Short interest has increased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 26.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.6% above its 200 day moving average of $237.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,350 contracts of the $280.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Paychex, Inc. $86.52

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $979.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 12.49%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,024 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead?
I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great final trading week of June and Q2 ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019

Good afternoon and happy Saturday to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019.

What to watch in the market in the week ahead: Stocks on track for best first half in 22 years - (Source)

The fate of U.S.-China trade talks could play out in the week ahead, and that could set the tone for markets and the economy in the second half of the year.
Stocks set new highs in the past week, after the Federal Reserve signaled it was ready to cut interest rates if necessary, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said trade and the global economy are two factors the Fed is watching.
The S&P 500 was on track, as of Friday, to score a more than 17.6% gain for the first half, which ends Friday. If it stays at that level that would be the best first half performance since 1997, when the S&P was up 19.4% in the first six months.
The big event in the coming week has been as anticipated for weeks, and it could sway sentiment for weeks to come. At the end of the week, the G-20 meets in Osaka Japan for meetings Friday and Saturday.
‘Could go either way’ President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to have their own dinner meeting at the G-20 next weekend, following discussions between their trade representatives. That meeting could decide how trade negotiations go forward, and whether the U.S. proceeds with another round of tariffs, this time on $300 billion in goods.
“Everybody knows the Trump, Xi meeting could go either way,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “I think everyone expects a new tariff freeze. That the $300 billion won’t go into effect. The most you can hope for out of G-20 meeting is the tariffs are where they are right now, and there’s no more escalation.That also means China will not release the list of companies they won’t do business with.”
Chandler said he will be looking for signaling from Trump and Xi on whether they are working on a deal that would be just on the trade topics, or bigger issues like North Korea and differences on the South China Sea.
“I do think the G-20 is quite important in that there’s not question in recent months, the trade war started to really move into measures of confidence and measures of manufacturing activity,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Harris said he expects a positive message with an agreement of no further escalation, but probably not signs of significant progress. “I think the vibes coming out of it will be modestly positive,” he said.
“Whether there’s an escalation to the next round of China tariffs is going to set the theme for the rest of the year. Even if tariffs on China are reversed, or partly reversed, at some point, every time there’s an escalation or temporary escalation, it’s another kind of blow to confidence,” he said.
Harris said there’s the same risk as after the Trump, Xi meeting at the last G-20, where it was a positive tone but there was little progress afterwards and the markets then reacted negatively.
“I think there’s been this broad increased awareness from every economist that the trade war is starting to have noticeable impact. Further escalation with China would be quite a big signal. If the Trump administration puts tariffs on all the Chinese products it roughly doubles the size of the trade war and it sends a very strong message that there are very few constraints on where [Trump] goes next,” he said.
Powell and data Besides the meeting between Trump and Xi, the market focus will be on anything that could provide clues on what the Fed or even the European Central Bank will do, after ECB President Mario Draghi last week basically promised a new era of easing. Consumer price inflation data is expected for the euro zone, and on Friday, the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data is released, including the PCE deflator, a major inflation indicator for the Fed.
There are also a few Fed speakers, including Powell who speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations Tuesday.
“It’s probably going to be a big picture kind of talk about the broader challenges of the Fed,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re certainly going to ask questions about political influence at the Fed, and he’s going to dodge those. I think what I’m waiting for him to comment on is what it is they’re looking for to determine whether they’re going to cut in July or not.”
Harris said Powell is not likely to say anything he did not reveal at his press briefing in the past week, and the big focus will be on the lead up to the weekend G-20.
Falling interest rates and rising oil prices were two big factors in the market int he past week. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped briefly below 2%, a near 3-year low, as the Fed signaled its willingness to cut interest rates.
“Should we get some sort of trade agreement that would be a nice pop to the [stock] market, but that could take the rate cut off the table,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Stovall said the stock market will also be watching oil after its rapid run higher, and the events in the Middle East surrounding Iran. West Texas Intermediate futures were up more than 9% in the past week, to $57.43.
“The old adage is every $10 increase in the price of oil takes off 20 to 25 basis points off of real GDP growth,” he said.
Stovall said stocks have had a solid run so far this year, but they may face some rocky times between now and the end of the summer. “For the rest of this ‘sell in May’ period we could be facing some challenges, headwinds. I think we’ will still end higher on the year. I think the seasonally optimistic September to November period will kick in but there will be a lot of challenges...will the Fed be cutting rates? what are the growth prospects?” he said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Big S&P 500 Junes Drain Life from Julys

S&P 500 is off to it best June performance since 1955, up 7.34% as of yesterday’s close. If yesterday was the last trading day of June, this performance would have been strong enough to push the month to 6th best going back to 1930. Looking back to late May, this performance is still impressive even though it was anticipated following May’s abysmal showing. However, such strong performance in June may not carry over into July.
Below S&P 500 performance in June has been split into positive and negative tables. Each table contains July’s historical performance as well as full-year performance. Historically July has been weaker after a positive June. July averages just 0.48% after an up June compared to a gain of 2.84% after a down June. Examining the Top 20 Junes and subsequent Julys showed only a modest improvement in performance with average July gain climbing to 1.11%. However, even if July does disappoint this year, the full year is likely to still be quite fair as past positive Junes where followed by full-year gains 80% of the time with an average gain of 13.44%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Can Stocks Really Gain 20% This Year?

U.S. stocks could have a big year if LPL Research’s forecasts prove correct.
All year, we’ve maintained our fair value target on the S&P 500 Index of 3,000, implying that we expect this bull market and economic expansion to continue. If the S&P 500 closes the year at 3,000, the index will have gained 19.7% in 2019.
On the surface, that seems like a high hurdle for U.S. stocks. However, the S&P 500 has already gained about 16% this year, so a rally to 3,000 isn’t far out of reach.
The S&P 500 also hasn’t posted a 20% gain for the year since 2013, an unusually long stretch compared to history.
“It is interesting that the S&P 500 hasn’t gained more than 20% in any one year for five consecutive years,” noted LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Only once since 1950 did it go more than five years in a row without gaining 20%, thus if this pattern continues we very well might get to 20% in 2019.”
As our LPL Chart of the Day “Can The S&P 500 Index Really Gain 20% This Year?” shows, it is quite rare for the S&P 500 to go this long without a 20% annual gain. Could the streak end in 2019? Be sure to read our Midyear Outlook 2019, which is set for release next week, for more on why this could be the case.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Prospect of Lower Rates Lifts Gold

As widely anticipated, the Fed did not change its target rate today. Instead, the Fed set the stage for cuts possibly later this year. Overall, the market’s response was a choppy climb to a modestly higher close. A more enthusiastic move by the market may have occurred if the Fed cut rates. Gold’s reaction was more favorable, finishing the day higher by over 1%. Generally, the lower interest rates go, the more desirable gold can become as lower rates typically result in a weaker dollar.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the above chart, gold’s monthly performance from 1975 to 2018 is displayed. Historically, October has been gold’s worst month and June is a close second. Historically, after weakness in June, gold has, on average, enjoyed solid gains in July, August and September. Some of this strength in gold is likely due to safe-haven demand during the stock market’s worst two months, August and September. Gold’s best three months, July to September, could easily be above average this year, especially if the Fed decides to cut sooner rather than later.

Are Bulls An Endangered Species?

The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high yesterday, the 5th new high so far in 2019. After May, the worst month for the S&P 500 since 2010, June is up 7.3% as of 06.20.19, which would be the best June since 1955.
Much of the rally this month has been sparked by a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with U.S.-China trade discussions potentially back on track.
What’s quite interesting about things now though, is many signs of investor sentiment are a long way from bullish. Remember, from a contrarian (or opposing) point of view, this can suggest there is still money on the sidelines.
“The S&P 500 might be at new highs, but global fund managers and individual investors are quite underweight equities right now,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “If you are looking for a reason this rally can continue, that could be it.”
For example, the recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch June Global Fund Manager Survey (a survey of managers who oversee more than $600 billion in assets) showed the largest jump in cash since August 2011. Additionally, equity allocation was the lowest it had been since March 2009, and the equity-to-bond allocation was the lowest since May 2009. Not to mention the allocation to bonds was the highest it had been in eight years. “Money on the sidelines might sound cliché, but it really seems to be the case this time,” said Detrick. With the S&P 500 hitting more all-time highs, having money in the market may make more sense (or cents!).
Individual investors are skeptical as well, as the recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed more bears than bulls for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since November 2016. Finally, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, AAII bulls have been under 30% for six consecutive weeks for the first time since January 2016.

Broad Strength in Health Care Sector

In an earlier post, we highlighted the fact that some of the ten best performing S&P 500 Industries between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20 were from the Health Care sector. It hasn't just been these four industries that have been strong in the Health Care sector either. The performance snapshot of the sector below shows just how strong the sector has been lately. While all six of the industries within the sector aren't up YTD or so far in Q2, between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20, Health Care is the only sector where every industry within the sector has posted positive returns. Not even the industries within the Utilities sector have been this uniformly positive. The best performer of the bunch has been Health Care Technology, which is up 8% since the end of April and has extended its YTD gain to 36.8%. The worst performing industry in the sector has been Biotech which is up 2.1% since 4/30, and while that may not sound like much, it's still better than more than half of the other industries in the index.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Best and Worst Groups Between Highs

While the S&P 500 made a new high for the first time in 35 trading days yesterday, many of the characteristics of the groups driving the rally have shifted. To highlight this, in the table below we summarize the ten best and worst performing S&P 500 Industries from the close on 4/30 through yesterday. During that 35 trading day stretch, 34 Industries saw positive returns while another 27 declined.
Industries that have seen the biggest gains between the two new highs are primarily defensive in nature as all but three come from sectors that are typically considered defensive (Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). Health Care has been the real star of the show, though. Of the sector's six different industries, four of them made the top ten!
On the downside, cyclical industries have dominated the weak side. When industries like Semis, Autos, Construction & Engineering, and Air Freight are lagging the market, it really illustrates the presence of economic concerns. Leading the way lower, Energy Equipment and Services declined over 10%, followed by Semiconductors which were down just under 10% after failing at resistance on Thursday for the third time in a month. These two industries are followed by two industries (Tobacco and Power and Renewable Energy) that come from sectors that are traditionally considered defensive, but they have their own specific issues to deal with.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for June 21st, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 06.23.19

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $MU
  • $BB
  • $FDX
  • $NKE
  • $GIS
  • $WBA
  • $STZ
  • $LEN
  • $FDS
  • $PAYX
  • $SOL
  • $CAG
  • $ACN
  • $RAD
  • $INFO
  • $SNX
  • $KBH
  • $AVAV
  • $JKS
  • $UNF
  • $SCHN
  • $MKC
  • $ATU
  • $PIR
  • $MLHR
  • $SJR
  • $AITB
  • $SKIS
  • $SGH
  • $GMS
  • $APOG
  • $FUL
  • $NG
  • $PDCO
  • $WOR
  • $ACST
  • $FC
  • $CAMP
  • $PRGS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.24.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.24.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.25.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.25.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.26.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.26.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.27.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.27.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.28.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.28.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Micron Technology, Inc. $33.25

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $4.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.75 to $0.95 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 75.96% with revenue decreasing by 39.46%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.5% below its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,540 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BlackBerry Limited $8.48

BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $249.12 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 100.00% with revenue increasing by 16.96%. The stock has drifted lower by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% below its 200 day moving average of $8.85. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,499 contracts of the $9.00 call expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FedEx Corp. $165.35

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.81 per share on revenue of $17.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.61% with revenue increasing by 3.73%. Short interest has increased by 60.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $192.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,273 contracts of the $175.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $85.75

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $10.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.71 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.35% with revenue increasing by 3.79%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $80.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,156 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $53.77

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.80% with revenue increasing by 8.73%. Short interest has increased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc $52.45

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.43 per share on revenue of $34.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.54% with revenue increasing by 0.57%. Short interest has decreased by 8.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% below its 200 day moving average of $67.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Constellation Brands, Inc. $183.73

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, June 28, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.09 per share on revenue of $2.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.62%. Short interest has increased by 66.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $189.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,200 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lennar Corp. $51.35

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.13 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.48% with revenue decreasing by 6.39%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% above its 200 day moving average of $46.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,349 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. $298.08

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.37 per share on revenue of $358.95 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.72% with revenue increasing by 5.60%. Short interest has increased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 26.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.6% above its 200 day moving average of $237.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,350 contracts of the $280.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Paychex, Inc. $86.52

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $979.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 12.49%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,024 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead?
I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great final trading week of June and Q2 ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019

Good afternoon and happy Saturday to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019.

What to watch in the market in the week ahead: Stocks on track for best first half in 22 years - (Source)

The fate of U.S.-China trade talks could play out in the week ahead, and that could set the tone for markets and the economy in the second half of the year.
Stocks set new highs in the past week, after the Federal Reserve signaled it was ready to cut interest rates if necessary, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said trade and the global economy are two factors the Fed is watching.
The S&P 500 was on track, as of Friday, to score a more than 17.6% gain for the first half, which ends Friday. If it stays at that level that would be the best first half performance since 1997, when the S&P was up 19.4% in the first six months.
The big event in the coming week has been as anticipated for weeks, and it could sway sentiment for weeks to come. At the end of the week, the G-20 meets in Osaka Japan for meetings Friday and Saturday.
‘Could go either way’ President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to have their own dinner meeting at the G-20 next weekend, following discussions between their trade representatives. That meeting could decide how trade negotiations go forward, and whether the U.S. proceeds with another round of tariffs, this time on $300 billion in goods.
“Everybody knows the Trump, Xi meeting could go either way,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “I think everyone expects a new tariff freeze. That the $300 billion won’t go into effect. The most you can hope for out of G-20 meeting is the tariffs are where they are right now, and there’s no more escalation.That also means China will not release the list of companies they won’t do business with.”
Chandler said he will be looking for signaling from Trump and Xi on whether they are working on a deal that would be just on the trade topics, or bigger issues like North Korea and differences on the South China Sea.
“I do think the G-20 is quite important in that there’s not question in recent months, the trade war started to really move into measures of confidence and measures of manufacturing activity,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Harris said he expects a positive message with an agreement of no further escalation, but probably not signs of significant progress. “I think the vibes coming out of it will be modestly positive,” he said.
“Whether there’s an escalation to the next round of China tariffs is going to set the theme for the rest of the year. Even if tariffs on China are reversed, or partly reversed, at some point, every time there’s an escalation or temporary escalation, it’s another kind of blow to confidence,” he said.
Harris said there’s the same risk as after the Trump, Xi meeting at the last G-20, where it was a positive tone but there was little progress afterwards and the markets then reacted negatively.
“I think there’s been this broad increased awareness from every economist that the trade war is starting to have noticeable impact. Further escalation with China would be quite a big signal. If the Trump administration puts tariffs on all the Chinese products it roughly doubles the size of the trade war and it sends a very strong message that there are very few constraints on where [Trump] goes next,” he said.
Powell and data Besides the meeting between Trump and Xi, the market focus will be on anything that could provide clues on what the Fed or even the European Central Bank will do, after ECB President Mario Draghi last week basically promised a new era of easing. Consumer price inflation data is expected for the euro zone, and on Friday, the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data is released, including the PCE deflator, a major inflation indicator for the Fed.
There are also a few Fed speakers, including Powell who speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations Tuesday.
“It’s probably going to be a big picture kind of talk about the broader challenges of the Fed,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re certainly going to ask questions about political influence at the Fed, and he’s going to dodge those. I think what I’m waiting for him to comment on is what it is they’re looking for to determine whether they’re going to cut in July or not.”
Harris said Powell is not likely to say anything he did not reveal at his press briefing in the past week, and the big focus will be on the lead up to the weekend G-20.
Falling interest rates and rising oil prices were two big factors in the market int he past week. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped briefly below 2%, a near 3-year low, as the Fed signaled its willingness to cut interest rates.
“Should we get some sort of trade agreement that would be a nice pop to the [stock] market, but that could take the rate cut off the table,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Stovall said the stock market will also be watching oil after its rapid run higher, and the events in the Middle East surrounding Iran. West Texas Intermediate futures were up more than 9% in the past week, to $57.43.
“The old adage is every $10 increase in the price of oil takes off 20 to 25 basis points off of real GDP growth,” he said.
Stovall said stocks have had a solid run so far this year, but they may face some rocky times between now and the end of the summer. “For the rest of this ‘sell in May’ period we could be facing some challenges, headwinds. I think we’ will still end higher on the year. I think the seasonally optimistic September to November period will kick in but there will be a lot of challenges...will the Fed be cutting rates? what are the growth prospects?” he said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Big S&P 500 Junes Drain Life from Julys

S&P 500 is off to it best June performance since 1955, up 7.34% as of yesterday’s close. If yesterday was the last trading day of June, this performance would have been strong enough to push the month to 6th best going back to 1930. Looking back to late May, this performance is still impressive even though it was anticipated following May’s abysmal showing. However, such strong performance in June may not carry over into July.
Below S&P 500 performance in June has been split into positive and negative tables. Each table contains July’s historical performance as well as full-year performance. Historically July has been weaker after a positive June. July averages just 0.48% after an up June compared to a gain of 2.84% after a down June. Examining the Top 20 Junes and subsequent Julys showed only a modest improvement in performance with average July gain climbing to 1.11%. However, even if July does disappoint this year, the full year is likely to still be quite fair as past positive Junes where followed by full-year gains 80% of the time with an average gain of 13.44%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Can Stocks Really Gain 20% This Year?

U.S. stocks could have a big year if LPL Research’s forecasts prove correct.
All year, we’ve maintained our fair value target on the S&P 500 Index of 3,000, implying that we expect this bull market and economic expansion to continue. If the S&P 500 closes the year at 3,000, the index will have gained 19.7% in 2019.
On the surface, that seems like a high hurdle for U.S. stocks. However, the S&P 500 has already gained about 16% this year, so a rally to 3,000 isn’t far out of reach.
The S&P 500 also hasn’t posted a 20% gain for the year since 2013, an unusually long stretch compared to history.
“It is interesting that the S&P 500 hasn’t gained more than 20% in any one year for five consecutive years,” noted LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Only once since 1950 did it go more than five years in a row without gaining 20%, thus if this pattern continues we very well might get to 20% in 2019.”
As our LPL Chart of the Day “Can The S&P 500 Index Really Gain 20% This Year?” shows, it is quite rare for the S&P 500 to go this long without a 20% annual gain. Could the streak end in 2019? Be sure to read our Midyear Outlook 2019, which is set for release next week, for more on why this could be the case.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Prospect of Lower Rates Lifts Gold

As widely anticipated, the Fed did not change its target rate today. Instead, the Fed set the stage for cuts possibly later this year. Overall, the market’s response was a choppy climb to a modestly higher close. A more enthusiastic move by the market may have occurred if the Fed cut rates. Gold’s reaction was more favorable, finishing the day higher by over 1%. Generally, the lower interest rates go, the more desirable gold can become as lower rates typically result in a weaker dollar.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the above chart, gold’s monthly performance from 1975 to 2018 is displayed. Historically, October has been gold’s worst month and June is a close second. Historically, after weakness in June, gold has, on average, enjoyed solid gains in July, August and September. Some of this strength in gold is likely due to safe-haven demand during the stock market’s worst two months, August and September. Gold’s best three months, July to September, could easily be above average this year, especially if the Fed decides to cut sooner rather than later.

Are Bulls An Endangered Species?

The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high yesterday, the 5th new high so far in 2019. After May, the worst month for the S&P 500 since 2010, June is up 7.3% as of 06.20.19, which would be the best June since 1955.
Much of the rally this month has been sparked by a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with U.S.-China trade discussions potentially back on track.
What’s quite interesting about things now though, is many signs of investor sentiment are a long way from bullish. Remember, from a contrarian (or opposing) point of view, this can suggest there is still money on the sidelines.
“The S&P 500 might be at new highs, but global fund managers and individual investors are quite underweight equities right now,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “If you are looking for a reason this rally can continue, that could be it.”
For example, the recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch June Global Fund Manager Survey (a survey of managers who oversee more than $600 billion in assets) showed the largest jump in cash since August 2011. Additionally, equity allocation was the lowest it had been since March 2009, and the equity-to-bond allocation was the lowest since May 2009. Not to mention the allocation to bonds was the highest it had been in eight years. “Money on the sidelines might sound cliché, but it really seems to be the case this time,” said Detrick. With the S&P 500 hitting more all-time highs, having money in the market may make more sense (or cents!).
Individual investors are skeptical as well, as the recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed more bears than bulls for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since November 2016. Finally, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, AAII bulls have been under 30% for six consecutive weeks for the first time since January 2016.

Broad Strength in Health Care Sector

In an earlier post, we highlighted the fact that some of the ten best performing S&P 500 Industries between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20 were from the Health Care sector. It hasn't just been these four industries that have been strong in the Health Care sector either. The performance snapshot of the sector below shows just how strong the sector has been lately. While all six of the industries within the sector aren't up YTD or so far in Q2, between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20, Health Care is the only sector where every industry within the sector has posted positive returns. Not even the industries within the Utilities sector have been this uniformly positive. The best performer of the bunch has been Health Care Technology, which is up 8% since the end of April and has extended its YTD gain to 36.8%. The worst performing industry in the sector has been Biotech which is up 2.1% since 4/30, and while that may not sound like much, it's still better than more than half of the other industries in the index.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Best and Worst Groups Between Highs

While the S&P 500 made a new high for the first time in 35 trading days yesterday, many of the characteristics of the groups driving the rally have shifted. To highlight this, in the table below we summarize the ten best and worst performing S&P 500 Industries from the close on 4/30 through yesterday. During that 35 trading day stretch, 34 Industries saw positive returns while another 27 declined.
Industries that have seen the biggest gains between the two new highs are primarily defensive in nature as all but three come from sectors that are typically considered defensive (Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). Health Care has been the real star of the show, though. Of the sector's six different industries, four of them made the top ten!
On the downside, cyclical industries have dominated the weak side. When industries like Semis, Autos, Construction & Engineering, and Air Freight are lagging the market, it really illustrates the presence of economic concerns. Leading the way lower, Energy Equipment and Services declined over 10%, followed by Semiconductors which were down just under 10% after failing at resistance on Thursday for the third time in a month. These two industries are followed by two industries (Tobacco and Power and Renewable Energy) that come from sectors that are traditionally considered defensive, but they have their own specific issues to deal with.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for June 21st, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 06.23.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $MU
  • $BB
  • $FDX
  • $NKE
  • $GIS
  • $WBA
  • $STZ
  • $LEN
  • $FDS
  • $PAYX
  • $SOL
  • $CAG
  • $ACN
  • $RAD
  • $INFO
  • $SNX
  • $KBH
  • $AVAV
  • $JKS
  • $UNF
  • $SCHN
  • $MKC
  • $ATU
  • $PIR
  • $MLHR
  • $SJR
  • $AITB
  • $SKIS
  • $SGH
  • $GMS
  • $APOG
  • $FUL
  • $NG
  • $PDCO
  • $WOR
  • $ACST
  • $FC
  • $CAMP
  • $PRGS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.24.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.24.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.25.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.25.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.26.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.26.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.27.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.27.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.28.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.28.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Micron Technology, Inc. $33.25

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $4.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.75 to $0.95 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 75.96% with revenue decreasing by 39.46%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.5% below its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,540 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BlackBerry Limited $8.48

BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $249.12 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 100.00% with revenue increasing by 16.96%. The stock has drifted lower by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% below its 200 day moving average of $8.85. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,499 contracts of the $9.00 call expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FedEx Corp. $165.35

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.81 per share on revenue of $17.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.61% with revenue increasing by 3.73%. Short interest has increased by 60.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $192.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,273 contracts of the $175.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $85.75

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $10.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.71 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.35% with revenue increasing by 3.79%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $80.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,156 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $53.77

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.80% with revenue increasing by 8.73%. Short interest has increased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc $52.45

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.43 per share on revenue of $34.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.54% with revenue increasing by 0.57%. Short interest has decreased by 8.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% below its 200 day moving average of $67.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Constellation Brands, Inc. $183.73

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, June 28, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.09 per share on revenue of $2.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.62%. Short interest has increased by 66.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $189.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,200 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lennar Corp. $51.35

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.13 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.48% with revenue decreasing by 6.39%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% above its 200 day moving average of $46.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,349 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. $298.08

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.37 per share on revenue of $358.95 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.72% with revenue increasing by 5.60%. Short interest has increased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 26.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.6% above its 200 day moving average of $237.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,350 contracts of the $280.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Paychex, Inc. $86.52

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $979.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 12.49%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,024 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead?
I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great final trading week of June and Q2 ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Daily Trading Thread - Wednesday 2.7.18

Hi everyone! Thanks for joining. This sub is for active traders of crypto and stocks, those looking to make a fat YUGE profit. While all are welcome, we are more geared for traders with a serious mindset. Post your ideas for today here.
Follow us on StockTwits and chat live on our Discord: trader chat.
Wiki: resources
FINVIZ HEATMAP - FINVIZ FUTURES - FOREX - NEWS FEED
FEB 7th WED Fear & Greed Index
Economic Calendar: Results & More
Time Release For Actual Expected Prior
7:00:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Index 43,134.00 0.01 NA -0.03
10:30:00 AM Crude Inventories 43,134.00 - NA NA
3:00:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec - $18.0B $20.0B
Ex-Dividend: Calendar
AMG Affiliated Manag Rg $0.30 0.42%
AROC Archrock $0.12 0.00%
BCO Brinks Rg $0.15 0.71%
CVCY Central Valley B Rg $0.07 1.25%
EBTC Enterprise Banco Rg $0.15 0.00%
ETR Entergy Rg $0.89 4.80%
FII FED INVESTORS-B $0.25 3.00%
GHC Graham Hldg Rg $1.33 0.87%
GNL Glbl Net Lease - Registered $0.18 11.90%
HTBK Heritage Commerc Rg $0.11 2.61%
KBH KB Home Rg $0.03 0.28%
MATX Matson Rg $0.20 2.18%
MBTF MBT Finl Rg $0.66 8.64%
OFED Oconee Fed Finl Rg $0.10 1.40%
PGC Peapack Gladston Rg $0.05 0.00%
RGA Reinsurnce Gr Am Rg $0.50 1.32%
RMD Resmed Rg $0.35 1.43%
SBUX Starbucks Rg $0.30 1.90%
STBA S & T Bancorp Rg $0.22 2.10%
SXI Standex Intl Rg $0.18 0.62%
TBNK Territorial Bnc Rg $0.20 3.94%
WSFS WSFS Financial Rg $0.09 0.58%
WTFC Wintrust Financi Rg $0.19 0.68%
Earnings Reports: Morningstar Earnings Calendar & Results
Company Release Est. EPS Company Release Est. EPS
A10 Networks (ATEN) Afternoon 0.01 Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) Morning 4.22
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) Afternoon N/A Kamada (KMDA) Morning 0.06
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Morning N/A KapStone Paper and Packaging (KS) Afternoon 0.42
Aerohive Networks (HIVE) Afternoon N/A Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX) Morning -0.18
Allegion (ALLE) Morning 0.95 Knowles (KN) Afternoon 0.36
Allstate (ALL) Afternoon 2.03 Lannett (LCI) Afternoon 0.85
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor (AOSL) Afternoon 0.16 LifeVantage (LFVN) Afternoon N/A
AMERCO (UHAL) Afternoon 9.20 Manning and Napier (MN) Afternoon 0.09
American Equity Investment Life (AEL) Afternoon 0.67 Manulife Financial (MFC) Afternoon 0.45
Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) Morning N/A Matrix Service (MTRX) Morning 0.16
Apollo Investment (AINV) Morning 0.16 MAXIMUS (MMS) N/A 0.77
AppFolio (APPF) Afternoon N/A MDU Resources Group (MDU) Morning 0.32
Ardmore Shipping (ASC) Morning -0.15 Medical Properties Trust (MPW) Morning N/A
Aspen Insurance (AHL) Afternoon 0.89 Medidata Solutions (MDSO) Morning 0.35
Astrotech (ASTC) Morning N/A Michael Kors (KORS) Morning 1.29
AU Optronics (AUO) Morning 0.14 Moelis & Co (MC) Afternoon 0.59
Axis Capital (AXS) Afternoon 1.11 Mohawk Industries (MHK) Afternoon 3.31
Aytu Bioscience (AYTU) N/A N/A Monmouth R.E. Inv. (MNR) Afternoon 0.11
Ball (BLL) Morning 0.52 Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Afternoon 0.79
Beazer Homes USA (BZH) Afternoon 0.00 Natus Medical (BABY) Morning 0.62
Berry Global Group (BERY) Morning 0.65 Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA) Morning -0.04
Brink's (BCO) Morning 1.06 Noble (NE) Afternoon N/A
Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) Morning 0.01 NuVasive (NUVA) Afternoon 0.67
BSB Bancorp (BLMT) Afternoon N/A NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Afternoon 1.79
Caesarstone (CSTE) Morning 0.28 Organovo (ONVO) Morning N/A
Callaway Golf (ELY) Afternoon -0.17 Owens-Illinois (OI) Morning 0.54
Camtek (CAMT) Morning 0.10 Pandora Media (P) Afternoon N/A
Carbonite (CARB) Afternoon N/A Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) Morning -0.12
Cardiovascular Systems (CSII) Afternoon -0.04 Peabody Energy (BTU) Morning 1.30
Care.com (CRCM) N/A N/A PennantPark Investment (PNNT) Afternoon 0.18
CDW (CDW) Morning 0.93 Performance Food Group (PFGC) Morning 0.37
Central Garden & Pet (CENT) Afternoon 0.15 PJT Partners (PJT) Morning 0.67
Central Garden & Pet (CENTA) Afternoon N/A Pro-Dex (PDEX) N/A N/A
Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Afternoon 0.91 Prospect Capital (PSEC) Afternoon 0.18
Civitas Solutions (CIVI) Afternoon 0.17 Prudential Financial (PRU) Afternoon 2.64
CM Finance (CMFN) Afternoon 0.25 pSivida (PSDV) Morning -0.15
Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) Morning 0.88 RadiSys (RSYS) Afternoon -0.06
Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI) Afternoon N/A Radware (RDWR) Morning 0.07
Cousins Properties (CUZ) Afternoon 0.02 Rapid7 (RPD) Afternoon N/A
CSG Systems International (CSGS) Afternoon 0.65 Rayonier (RYN) Afternoon 0.09
CSRA (CSRA) Afternoon 0.47 RealNetworks (RNWK) Afternoon N/A
DHI Group (DHX) Morning 0.04 Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) Afternoon 0.42
Diodes (DIOD) Afternoon 0.38 Rent-A-Center (RCII) Afternoon 0.07
DTE Energy (DTE) Morning 1.00 Rio Tinto (RIO) Morning N/A
Ellie Mae (ELLI) Afternoon 0.32 Sanofi (SNY) Morning 0.68
EnerSys (ENS) Afternoon 1.14 Statoil ASA (STO) Morning 0.34
ePlus (PLUS) Afternoon 0.84 Steris (STE) Morning 1.07
Exelon (EXC) Morning 0.60 Suncor Energy (SU) Afternoon 0.44
FBL Financial Group (FFG) Afternoon N/A Synaptics (SYNA) Afternoon 1.09
First Solar (FSLR) Afternoon 0.48 Taro Pharmaceutical Industries (TARO) Afternoon N/A
FirstService (FSV) Morning 0.48 Taubman Centers (TCO) Afternoon N/A
Fonar (FONR) Morning N/A Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) Morning 0.70
Forward Air (FWRD) Afternoon 0.62 Tesla (TSLA) Afternoon -3.75
GGP (GGP) Morning 0.20 The Carlyle Group (CG) Morning 0.62
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Afternoon 0.65 Timken (TKR) Morning 0.67
Granite Point Mortgage Trust (GPMT) Afternoon 0.36 Torchmark (TMK) Afternoon 1.23
Green Plains Partners (GPP) Afternoon 0.47 TriNet Group (TNET) Afternoon N/A
Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) Morning 0.42 Trivago (TRVG) Morning -0.02
Hasbro (HAS) Morning 2.04 Twitter (TWTR) Morning 0.10
Hennessy Capital Acquisition (BLBD) Morning 0.02 U.S. Global Investors (GROW) Morning N/A
Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS) Afternoon -0.73 Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) Morning N/A
Hortonworks (HDP) Afternoon N/A Usa Compression Partners (USAC) Morning N/A
Humana (HUM) Morning 2.00 Valvoline (VVV) Afternoon 0.28
IAC/InterActiveCorp (IAC) Afternoon 0.92 Verisign (VRSN) Afternoon 0.99
Infinera (INFN) Afternoon -0.21 ViaSat (VSAT) Afternoon N/A
Innoviva (INVA) Afternoon 0.38 Walker & Dunlop (WD) Morning 1.02
Inphi (IPHI) Afternoon 0.08 Watts Water Technologies (WTS) Afternoon N/A
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Morning 0.72 Web.com Group (WEB) Afternoon N/A
Intermolecular (IMI) Afternoon N/A Workiva (WK) Afternoon N/A
INTL Fcstone (INTL) Afternoon N/A World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) Morning 0.18
Invacare (IVC) Afternoon -0.44 Xcel Energy (XEL) Morning 0.43
Investors Title (ITIC) Morning N/A Xplore Technologies (XPLR) Afternoon 0.02
iPass (IPAS) Afternoon N/A XPO Logistics (XPO) Afternoon 0.43
iRobot (IRBT) Afternoon 0.25 Yelp (YELP) Afternoon 0.05
J2 Global (JCOM) Afternoon 1.70 Yum China (YUMC) Afternoon 0.18
Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Morning 0.67 Zayo Group (ZAYO) Morning 0.12
Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) Morning 4.22 Zynga (ZNGA) Afternoon 0.01
PRE-MARKET MOVERS: $UVXY $BSWN $TVIX $SNAP $YANG $VIXY $VXX $ALLT $DPW $SDOW $CLF $SQM $SPXU $SPXS $XNET $TZA $UGAZ $QID $TWTR $SDS $CMCM $JNUG
ROCKET BOT - FINVIZ TOP GAINERS - FINVIZ TOP LOSERS
Crypto Watch List: BTC XRP ETH LTC FUN OMG POE XRB GAS NEO SC ZCL XLM XVG PPT SALT LEND ICX ETC STEEM WTC EOS VEN
COIN MARKET CAP - COINDESK NEWS - RISING/FALLING
Disclaimer: The opinions in this thread and forum are solely the opinions of the individual account holders and contributors. The info should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation of any particular security. All investments entail risks. As with most things in life, caveat emptor.
submitted by theprofitgod to The_Profit [link] [comments]

Stock Market Week Ahead for the trading week beginning February 4th, 2019 (News, Earnings, etc.)

Hey what's up stocks! Good morning and happy Sunday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty decent last week in the market, and are ready for the new trading week ahead! :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning February 4th, 2019.

Jobs report removes some fear, but market still in 'tug of war' over how much growth is slowing - (Source)

After January's strong jobs report calmed some recession fears, investors will be picking through the next wave of earnings reports and economic data for clues on just how much the U.S. economy could be slowing.
Dozens of earnings, from companies like Alphabet, Disney and Eli Lily, report in the week ahead, and there are just a few economic reports like trade data and ISM services on Tuesday. Investors will also be watching the outcome of Treasury auctions for $84 billion in Treasury notes and bonds Tuesday through Thursday, after the Fed's dovish tone helped put a lid on interest rates in the past week.
Nearly half the S&P 500 companies had reported for the fourth quarter by Friday morning, and 71 percent beat earnings estimates, while 62 percent have beaten revenue estimates. But earnings growth forecasts for the first quarter continue to decline as more companies report, and they are currently barely breaking even at under 1 percent growth, versus the 15 percent growth in the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv.
"Granted the more we hear from companies, and particularly in terms of their guidance and projections on revenues, things can slowly change. The first thing companies do is they stop spending money. Cap spending slows down, and if revenue growth does not pick up, they let people go. This is still wait and see," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Krosby said the 304,000 jobs added in January did ease some concerns about a slowing economy, as did a stronger than expected ISM manufacturing report Friday. But the view of the first quarter is still unclear, as many economic reports were missed during the government shutdown. Economists expect growth in the first quarter of just above 2 percent, after growth of about 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
Stocks closed out January with a sharp gain on Thursday, and started February on Friday on a flattish note. The S&P 500 has rebounded about 15 percent from its Dec. 24 closing low. Last month's 7.9 percent gain was the best performance for January in more than 30 years. The old Wall Street adage says 'so goes January, so goes the year.' If that holds, stocks could finish 2019 higher. But February is another story, and on average, it is a flat month for the S&P 500.
"The tug of war that you saw in the market, that was going on in the last half of last year is playing out in the data. Some of the data is a bit lower, but some of the economic surprises are picking up to the upside rather than downside," said Krosby.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the ISM may have improved but it reflected very low exports and flat backlogs, even though there was a snap back in new orders.
"I would fade the jobs report," said Boockvar, noting the level of growth may have been inflated by government workers taking on part-time jobs during the government shutdown.
Boocvkar said the jobs report also looked strong on the surface, but he's concerned the unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent from 3.9 percent.
"The question of whether we go into a recession or not is how does the stock market affect confidence?" Boockvar said. Confidence readings in the past week were low, and consumer sentiment Friday was its lowest since before President Donald Trump took office.
Krosby said stocks could test recent lows or put in a higher low. If there's a big selloff, "That would not necessarily mean it was a clue a recession is coming. It's just a normal testing mechanism," she said.
The Fed removed a big concern from the markets in the past week, when its post-meeting statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's briefing tilted dovish, assuring markets the Fed would pause in its interest rate hiking. Investors had feared the Fed would hurt the softening economy with its rate hikes. Now, the biggest fears are about the trade war between the U.S. and China and slowing Chinese growth.
The jobs report, and the ISM manufacturing data were also important because the lack of data during the government's 35 day shutdown has left gaps in the economic picture.
"This is really a sign the Fed stole the thunder from the economic data. By saying they're patient plasters over any kind of economic data in the near term, and I suspect the near term lasts through the first quarter because of the government shutdown, the weather, weak GDP," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
Chandler said the markets will be hanging on any news on the trade talks with China. "Even if it's not the all encompassing trade deal we were promised, it's a return to where we were before with China promising to buy energy and farm products. We'll continue to have some kind of talks with the China, like we had under Obama and Bush," said Chandler.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #2!)

Now What?

What a year it has been. After the worst December for stocks in 87 years that contributed to the worst fourth quarter since the 2008–09 financial crisis, stocks have bounced back in spectacular fashion. In fact, with a day to go, stocks are looking at their best first month of the year in 30 years.
What could happen next? “We like to say that the easy 10% has been made off the lows and the next 10% will be much tougher,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Things like Fed policy, China uncertainty, and overall global growth concerns all will play a part in where equity markets go from here.”
With the S&P 500 Index about 10% away from new highs, we do think new highs are quite possible at some point this year. Positive news from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and China trade talks, as well as the realization by investors that the odds of a recession in 2019 are quite low could spark potential new highs. Remember, fiscal spending as a percentage of overall gross domestic product (GDP) is higher this year than it was last year. Many think the tax cut and fiscal policies in play last year were a one-time sugar high. We don’t see it that way and expect the benefits from fiscal policy to help extend this economic cycle at least another year—likely more.
As we head into February, note that it hasn’t been one of the best months for stocks. In fact, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, since 1950, February has been virtually flat, and over the past 20 years only June and September have shown worse returns. Overall, the market gains have been quite impressive since the December 24 lows, but we wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a near-term consolidation or pullback.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A Fed Pause and the Flattening Yield Curve

Investors have increasingly positioned for a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause, which could portend a shift in fixed income markets. Fed fund futures are pricing in about a 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2019, and the market’s dovish tilt has weighed on short-term rates.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 2-year yield has typically followed the fed funds rate since policymakers began raising rates in December 2015. While we expect one or two more hikes this cycle, there is a possibility that the Fed’s December hike was its last, which will likely cap short-term rates.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short-term yields have outpaced longer-term yields over the past few years, flattening the yield curve and raising concerns that U.S. economic progress may not be able to keep up with the Fed’s tightening. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yield has fallen negative before every single U.S. recession since 1970.
If the Fed pauses, the curve will likely reverse course and steepen as solid economic growth and quickening (but manageable) inflation drives longer-term yields higher. As mentioned in our Outlook 2019, FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, we’re forecasting the 10-year Treasury yield will increase significantly from current levels and trade within a range of 3.25–3.75% in 2019.
“We remain optimistic about U.S. economic growth prospects, and recent data show inflation remains at manageable levels,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Because of this, we expect the data-dependent Fed to be less aggressive than initially feared, as policymakers juggle these factors with the impacts of trade tensions and tepid global growth.”
To be clear, investors shouldn’t fear a flattening yield curve given the backdrop of solid economic growth and modest inflation. Historically, the yield curve has remained relatively flat or inverted for years before some recessions started. Since 1970, the United States has entered a recession an average of 21 months after the yield curve inverted.

Jobless Claims’ Historic Significance

Jobless claims have dropped to a 49-year low. Based on historical trends, this could signal that a U.S. economic recession is further off than many expect.
Data released January 24 showed jobless claims fell to 199K in the week ending January 18, the lowest number since 1969 and far below consensus estimates of 218K. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, current jobless claims have been significantly lower than those in the 12-month periods preceding each recession since the early 1970s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Jobless claims have fallen out of the spotlight as the economic cycle has matured, but they could prove important again as investors’ recessionary fears increase. While most labor-market data serve as lagging indicators of U.S. economic health, jobless claims are a leading indicator. Historically, a 75–100K increase in claims over a 26-week period has been associated with a recession.
“Last week’s jobless claims print was particularly impressive given the partial government shutdown and weakening corporate sentiment,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “The U.S. labor market remains strong and will help buoy consumer health and output growth this year.”
Other predictive data sets have signaled U.S. recessionary odds are low. Data last week showed the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), based on 10 leading economic indicators (like jobless claims, manufacturers’ new orders, and stock prices), grew 4.3% year over year in December. In contrast, the LEI has turned negative year over year before all economic recessions since 1970. Because of its solid predictive ability, the LEI is a component of our Recession Watch Dashboard.

Best S&P January Since 1987

Most major U.S. stock indexes rallied to new recovery and year-to-date highs today shrugging off some misses and weakness from Microsoft, DuPont and Visa. S&P 500 finished the month strong with a 7.9% gain. This is the best S&P January since 1987. This is also the third January Trifecta in a row.
Last year the S&P 500 crumbled in the fourth quarter under the weight of triple threats from a hawkish and confusing Fed, a newly divided Congress and the U.S. trade battle with China, finishing in the red. 2017’s Trifecta was followed by a full-year gain of 19.4%, including a February-December gain of 17.3%. As you can see in the table below, the long term track record of the Trifecta is rather impressive, posting full-year gains in 27 of the 30 prior years with an average gain for the S&P 500 of 17.1%.
Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer has registered ten major errors since 1950 for an 85.5% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the ten major errors Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968. 1982 saw the start of a major bull market in August. Two January rate cuts and 9/11 affected 2001.The market in January 2003 was held down by the anticipation of military action in Iraq. The second worst bear market since 1900 ended in March of 2009 and Federal Reserve intervention influenced 2010 and 2014. In 2016, DJIA slipped into an official Ned Davis bear market in January. Including the eight flat years yields a .739 batting average.
Our January Indicator Trifecta combines the Santa Claus Rally, the First Five Days Early Warning System and our full-month January Barometer. The predicative power of the three is considerably greater than any of them alone; we have been rather impressed by its forecasting prowess. This is the 31st time since 1949 that all three January Indicators have been positive and the twelfth time (previous eleven times highlighted in grey in table below) this has occurred in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
With the Fed turning more dovish and President Trump tacking to the center and meeting with China and market internals improving along with the gains, the market is tracking Base Case and Best Case scenarios outlined in our 2019 Annual Forecast. Next eleven month and full-year 2019 performance is expected to be more in line with typical Pre-Election returns.

February Almanac: Small-Caps Tend to Outperform

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is not all that stellar. February ranks no better than seventh and has posted paltry average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the seventh best month for that benchmark.
In pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000, the large-cap indices, tend to lag with average advances of around 1.0%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

5% Months

7%? Bulls will take it! After an abysmal December, the S&P 500 is currently set to finish the month with its best January return since 1987. This month’s gain will mark the 16th time since the lows of the Financial Crisis in March 2009 that the S&P 500 has rallied more than 5% in a given month. The table below highlights each of the 15 prior months where the S&P 500 rallied more than 5% and shows how much the S&P 500 gained on the month as well as its performance on the last trading day of the month and the first trading day of the subsequent month.
When looking at the table, a few things stand out. First, the first trading day of a month that follows a month where the S&P 500 rallied more than 5% has been extremely positive as the S&P 500 averages a gain of 0.84% (median: 1.01%) with positive returns 13 out of 15 times! In addition to the positive tendency of markets on the first day of the new month, there has also been a clear tendency for the S&P 500 to decline on the last trading day of the strong month. The average decline on the last trading day of a strong month has been 0.09% with positive returns less than half of the time. This is no doubt related to the fact that funds are forced to rebalance out of equities to get back inline with their benchmark weights. However, on those five prior months where the S&P 500 bucked the trend and was positive on the last trading day of a 5%+ month, the average gain on the first trading day of the next month was even stronger at 1.52% with gains five out of six times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for February 1st, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.3.19

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading month ahead-
  • $GOOGL
  • $TWTR
  • $SNAP
  • $CLF
  • $TTWO
  • $ALXN
  • $DIS
  • $BP
  • $CLX
  • $SYY
  • $GM
  • $GILD
  • $CMG
  • $GRUB
  • $EA
  • $STX
  • $SPOT
  • $AMG
  • $SAIA
  • $RL
  • $CNC
  • $EL
  • $UFI
  • $GLUU
  • $MTSC
  • $JOUT
  • $PM
  • $GPRO
  • $LITE
  • $FEYE
  • $SWKS
  • $LLY
  • $MPC
  • $BDX
  • $REGN
  • $VIAB
  • $ONVO
  • $HUM
  • $ARRY
  • $PBI
  • $ADM
  • $BSAC
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S BIGGEST DECLINE IN EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST INCREASE IN EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 2.4.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 2.4.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 2.5.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 2.5.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Wednesday 2.6.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 2.6.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Thursday 2.7.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)

Thursday 2.7.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Friday 2.8.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 2.8.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Alphabet, Inc. -

Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, February 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $11.08 per share on revenue of $31.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $11.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 14.23% with revenue decreasing by 3.23%. Short interest has decreased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1,127.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 24, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,493 contracts of the $1,200.00 call expiring on Friday, February 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Twitter, Inc. $33.19

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 7, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $871.59 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.89% with revenue increasing by 19.14%. Short interest has decreased by 54.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.1% below its 200 day moving average of $34.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, December 31, 2018 there was some notable buying of 45,575 contracts of the $34.00 call expiring on Friday, March 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Snap Inc. $6.91

Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $376.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $355.00 million to $380.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.27% with revenue increasing by 31.83%. Short interest has decreased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.6% below its 200 day moving average of $10.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 3, 2019 there was some notable buying of 29,739 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, February 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 15.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc $10.53

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Friday, February 8, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $713.61 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.63 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 87% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 119.23% with revenue increasing by 18.76%. Short interest has increased by 4.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.2% above its 200 day moving average of $9.47. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, January 7, 2019 there was some notable buying of 10,030 contracts of the $8.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. $104.95

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, February 6, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.72 per share on revenue of $1.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.82 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.31 to $0.41 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 106.06% with revenue increasing by 203.64%. Short interest has increased by 37.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 18.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% below its 200 day moving average of $116.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 23, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,067 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, February 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $126.28

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALXN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Monday, February 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.82 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 23.81% with revenue increasing by 16.52%. Short interest has decreased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $119.40. On Friday, February 1, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,235 contracts of the $130.00 call expiring on Friday, February 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Walt Disney Co $111.30

Walt Disney Co (DIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.57 per share on revenue of $15.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.93% with revenue decreasing by 1.11%. Short interest has increased by 7.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.9% above its 200 day moving average of $109.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 1, 2019 there was some notable buying of 8,822 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, February 8, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BP p.l.c $41.34

BP p.l.c (BP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:25 AM ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $60.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.31% with revenue decreasing by 13.28%. Short interest has increased by 6.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% below its 200 day moving average of $43.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,010 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Clorox Co. $149.86

Clorox Co. (CLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, February 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.32 per share on revenue of $1.48 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.32% with revenue increasing by 4.52%. Short interest has decreased by 9.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.9% above its 200 day moving average of $141.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,025 contracts of the $152.50 put expiring on Friday, February 8, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

SYSCO Corp. $63.57

SYSCO Corp. (SYY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, February 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $14.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.09% with revenue increasing by 3.04%. Short interest has decreased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% below its 200 day moving average of $67.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 1, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,691 contracts of the $66.00 call expiring on Friday, February 8, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead?
Have a fantastic Sunday and a great trading week ahead to all here on stocks! ;)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

How to Scan For Growth Stocks with FinViz Forex Higher Time Frame Trading System Entry Confirmation Candlestick Patterns Finviz forex strategy System Signal Scalping The MOST powerful, yet SIMPLE Forex Trading System in the MARKET. PERIOD. FOREX! - Scanning For Setups + Overview Of Winning Trades! How to Use FinViz Heatmaps How To Make $100 A Day Trading

Tag Umkehrung Eintrag von H4 Joined Mar 2016 Status: Alle Freizeit-Studie forex 827 Posts Online Now pls verstehen mein Englisch sehr schlec... Upgrade your FINVIZ experience. Join thousands of traders who make more informed decisions with our premium features. Real-time quotes, advanced visualizations, backtesting, and much more. Finviz Forex Financial Visualizations 2 5 Apk Androidappsapk Co Finviz Stock Screener Review Tren! ds On Wall Street Finviz Elite Chwalsports Ml Stock Screener Finviz Forex Performance Forex Broker Compare How To Have A Fantastic Finviz Futures Chart Information Use Currency Strength For Scalping Xtreme Trader The Best Online Currency Strength For Scalping Finviz Review 2019 Stock Screening ... Upgrade your FINVIZ experience. Join thousands of traders who make more informed decisions with our premium features. Real-time quotes, advanced visualizations, backtesting, and much more. Kak Ispolzovat Finviz Forex Performance! Dlya Torgovli Na Binarnyh Opcionah ! Finviz Forex Financial Visualizations Apps Bei Google Play Forex Finviz Kaivos Bitcoin Iphone How To Use Finviz Forex Finviz Stock Screener Review 2019 Pros Cons Finviz Review Free Stock Market Scanner For Traders And Investors Finviz Review 2019 Stock Screening Tool Investormint Simple Method To Select Trending ... Finviz is a browser-based platform offering a free stock screener, market research, financial news and more. Most of its services are free, but it also offers a subscription package with enhanced ... Finviz Forex Performance Systeme May 10, 2017 Tag Umkehrung Eintrag von H4 Joined Mar 2016 Status: Alle Freizeit-Studie forex 827 Posts Online Now pls verstehen mein Englisch sehr schlecht Ich kann nicht alle Antwort Antwort. Thiss Methode Handel tdi Indikator Basis jeder will, wie Tdi Indikator verwenden folgen ursprünglichen Website compassfxcompasssynergy I HANDEL TAGEN eine Woche H4 BASSE ... Finviz Forex Volume Chart How To Start Up Your Own Home Healthcare Finviz Forex Finviz Forex Volume Hacking Financial Markets 25 Tools For Trading Investing Finviz Forex Performance Finviz Forex Screener What Is Stock Finviz Review Simplified Forex Finviz Futures Charts The Chart Forex Trading With Finviz Com Gbp Jpy Today Every Hour Economic Reports From The United States Will Determine The ... Upgrade your FINVIZ experience. Join thousands of traders who make more informed decisions with our premium features. Real-time quotes, advanced visualizations, backtesting, and much more. Currency Strength Weakness Without Indicators Trading Systems Finviz Forex Forex 4h Trading System Recent Strength Indicator Forex Factory ! Finviz Forex Performance Finviz Forex Screener What Is Stock Currency Strength Trader Currency Strength Indicator Use Relative Strength To Find The Best Day Trades How To Use Finviz Heatmaps Finviz Charting Aktienscreener Erfahrungsbericht How To Trade ...

[index] [29538] [21185] [14148] [16131] [25553] [14327] [12276] [966] [2406] [19569]

How to Scan For Growth Stocks with FinViz

All about Trading in Forex and Binary Option Marked. Link to Lesson 1 Forex Higher Time Frame Trading System 👉 Key Support and Resistanse https://www.youtube... The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Absolutely consult your Registered Financial Advisor and your Risk Trading Plan before ... Rating is available when the video has been rented. This feature is not available right now. Please try again later. Published on Feb 13, 2018. How to Use FinViz Heatmaps. Watch this short video ... get forex strategy and trade profitably Finviz forex strategy System Signal Scalping Live Forex Trading - EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY Watch as I document AGAIN our extremely POWERFUL new Renko trading system by actually trading it LIVE in front of you. This is a video compilation of more of my trades taken this week in the NY ... The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. If you decide to invest real money, all trading decisions should be your own. Using the Finviz Stock Screener to Find Growth Stocks - Jerry Robinson - Duration: 15:03. ... 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula - Beat The Market Maker📈 - Duration: 37:53. TRADE ATS 1,069,199 ...

http://binomo-review.skbroker.ru